TY - JOUR
T1 - Within-patient temporal variance in MELD score and impact on survival prediction after TIPS creation
AU - Gaba, Ron C.
AU - Shah, Kruti D.
AU - Couture, Patrick M.
AU - Parvinian, Ahmad
AU - Minocha, Jeet
AU - Knuttinen, M. Grace
AU - Bui, James T.
N1 - Copyright:
Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2013
Y1 - 2013
N2 - Background. To assess within-patient temporal variability in Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores and impact on outcome prognostication after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation. Material and methods. In this single institution retrospective study, MELD score was calculated in 68 patients (M:F = 42:26, mean age 55 years) at 4 pre-procedure time points (1, 2-6, 7-14, and 15-35 days) before TIPS creation. Medical record review was used to identify 30- and 90-day clinical outcomes. Within-patient variability in pre-procedure MELD scores was assessed using repeated measures analysis of variance, and the ability of MELD scores at different time points to predict post-TIPS mortality was evaluated by comparing area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves. Results. TIPS were successfully created for ascites (n = 30), variceal hemorrhage (n = 29), hepatic hydrothorax (n = 8), and portal vein thrombosis (n = 1). Pre-TIPS MELD scores showed significant (P = 0.032) within-subject variance that approached ± 18.5%. Higher MELD scores demonstrated greater variability in sequential scores as compared to lower MELD scores. Overall 30- and 90-day patient mortality was 22% (15/67) and 38% (24/64). AUROC curves showed that most recent MELD scores performed on the day of TIPS had superior predictive capacity for 30- (0.876, P = 0.037) and 90-day (0.805 P = 0.020) mortality compared to MELD scores performed 2-6 or 7-14 days prior. Conclusions. In conclusion, MELD scores show within-patient variability over time, and scores calculated on the day of TIPS most accurately predict risk and should be used for patient selection and counseling.
AB - Background. To assess within-patient temporal variability in Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores and impact on outcome prognostication after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation. Material and methods. In this single institution retrospective study, MELD score was calculated in 68 patients (M:F = 42:26, mean age 55 years) at 4 pre-procedure time points (1, 2-6, 7-14, and 15-35 days) before TIPS creation. Medical record review was used to identify 30- and 90-day clinical outcomes. Within-patient variability in pre-procedure MELD scores was assessed using repeated measures analysis of variance, and the ability of MELD scores at different time points to predict post-TIPS mortality was evaluated by comparing area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves. Results. TIPS were successfully created for ascites (n = 30), variceal hemorrhage (n = 29), hepatic hydrothorax (n = 8), and portal vein thrombosis (n = 1). Pre-TIPS MELD scores showed significant (P = 0.032) within-subject variance that approached ± 18.5%. Higher MELD scores demonstrated greater variability in sequential scores as compared to lower MELD scores. Overall 30- and 90-day patient mortality was 22% (15/67) and 38% (24/64). AUROC curves showed that most recent MELD scores performed on the day of TIPS had superior predictive capacity for 30- (0.876, P = 0.037) and 90-day (0.805 P = 0.020) mortality compared to MELD scores performed 2-6 or 7-14 days prior. Conclusions. In conclusion, MELD scores show within-patient variability over time, and scores calculated on the day of TIPS most accurately predict risk and should be used for patient selection and counseling.
KW - Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD)
KW - Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS)
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U2 - 10.1016/s1665-2681(19)31322-5
DO - 10.1016/s1665-2681(19)31322-5
M3 - Article
C2 - 24018498
AN - SCOPUS:84885766004
SN - 1665-2681
VL - 12
SP - 797
EP - 802
JO - Annals of hepatology
JF - Annals of hepatology
IS - 5
ER -