Vertebral Fracture Risk Thresholds from Phantom-Less Quantitative Computed Tomography-Based Finite Element Modeling Correlate to Phantom-Based Outcomes

Introduction: Osteoporosis indicates weakened bones and heightened fracture susceptibility due to diminished bone quality. Dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry is unable to assess bone strength. Volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD) from quantitative computed tomography (QCT) has been used to establish guidelines as equivalent measurements for osteoporosis. QCT-based finite element analysis (FEA) has been implemented using calibration phantoms to establish bone strength thresholds based on the established vBMD. The primary aim was to validate vertebral failure load thresholds using a phantom-less approach with previously established thresholds, advancing a phantom-free approach for fracture risk prediction. Methodology: A controlled cohort of 108 subjects (68 females) was used to validate sex-specific vertebral fracture load thresholds for normal, osteopenic, and osteoporotic subjects, obtained using a QCT/FEA-based phantom-less calibration approach and two material equations. Results: There were strong prediction correlations between the phantom-less and phantom-based methods (R2: 0.95 and 0.97 for males, and R2: 0.96 and 0.98 for females) based on the two equations. Bland Altman plots and paired t-tests showed no significant differences between methods. Predictions for bone strengths and thresholds using the phantom-less method matched those obtained using the phantom calibration and those previously established, with ≤4500 N (fragile) and ≥6000 N (normal) bone strength in females, and ≤6500 N (fragile) and ≥8500 N (normal) bone strength in males. Conclusion: Phantom-less QCT-based FEA can allow for prospective and retrospective studies evaluating incidental vertebral fracture risk along the spine and their association with spine curvature and/or fracture etiology. The findings of this study further supported the application of phantom-less QCT-based FEA modeling to predict vertebral strength, aiding in identifying individuals prone to fractures. This reinforces the rationale for adopting this method as a comprehensive approach in predicting and managing fracture risk.