Scores for post-myocardial infarction risk stratification in the community

Mandeep Singh, Guy S. Reeder, Steven J. Jacobsen, Susan Weston, Jill Killian, Véronique L. Roger

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

104 Scopus citations


Background - Several scores, most of which were derived from clinical trials, have been proposed for stratifying risk after myocardial infarctions (MIs). Little is known about their generalizability to the community, their respective advantages, and whether the ejection fraction (EF) adds prognostic information to the scores. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Predicting Risk of Death in Cardiac Disease Tool (PREDICT) scores in a geographically defined MI cohort and determine the incremental value of EF for risk stratification. Methods and Results - MIs occurring in Olmsted County were validated with the use of standardized criteria and stratified with the ECG into ST-segment elevation (STEMI) and non-ST-segment elevation (NSTEMI) MI. Logistic regression examined the discriminant accuracy of the TIMI and PREDICT scores to predict death and recurrent MI and assessed the incremental value of the EF. After 6.3±4.7 years, survival was similar for the 562 STEMIs and 717 NSTEMIs. The discriminant accuracy of the TIMI score was good in STEMI but only fair in NSTEMI. Across time and end points, irrespective of reperfusion therapy, the discriminant accuracy of the PREDICT score was consistently superior to that of the TIMI scores, largely because PREDICT includes comorbidity; EF provided incremental information over that provided by the scores and comorbidity. Conclusion - In the community, comorbidity and EF convey important prognostic information and should be included in approaches for stratifying risk after MI.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2309-2314
Number of pages6
Issue number18
StatePublished - Oct 29 2002


  • Epidemiology
  • Myocardial infarction
  • Risk assessment
  • Risk factors
  • Trials

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine
  • Physiology (medical)


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