TY - JOUR
T1 - Prognostic Value of the Anatomic-Physiologic Classification in Adults with Congenital Heart Disease
AU - Egbe, Alexander C.
AU - Miranda, William R.
AU - Jain, C. Charles
AU - Anderson, Jason H.
AU - Younis, Ahmed
AU - Abozied, Omar
AU - Connolly, Heidi M.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Lippincott Williams and Wilkins. All rights reserved.
PY - 2023/9/1
Y1 - 2023/9/1
N2 - BACKGROUND: The prognostic role of the congenital heart disease (CHD) anatomic/physiologic classification has not been systematically studied. The purpose of this study was to determine whether CHD physiologic stage provided improvement in prognostic power (to predict all-cause mortality) beyond conventional clinical risk models. METHODS: Retrospective study of adults with CHD at the Mayo Clinic (2003-2019). The CHD physiologic stage was assessed at baseline and 36 (24-48) months, and patients were classified into stages A to D at these time points. Clinical stability (remaining in the same stage), clinical improvement (moving to less advanced stage), and clinical deterioration (moving to more advanced stage) were determined at 36 months. We defined conventional clinical risk indices as age/sex, functional class, comorbidities, cardiac procedures, hepatorenal dysfunction, and ventricular/valvular dysfunction. RESULTS: Of 5321 patients, 1649 (31%), 1968 (37%), 1224 (23%), and 480 (9%) were in stages A, B, C, and D at baseline. Of 5321 patients, 4588 (86%) also had assessments at 36 months, and of these patients, 3347 (73%), 386 (8%), and 855 (19%) had clinical stability, deterioration, and improvement, respectively. Patients with clinical improvement were more likely to have undergone cardiac procedures between both assessments. Both baseline CHD physiologic stage (hazard ratio, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.09-1.17]; P<0.001, per unit increase in stage) and change in CHD physiologic stage (hazard ratio, 1.46 [95% CI, 1.32-1.61]; P=0.007, per unit increase in stage) were associated with mortality after adjustments for conventional risk indices and provided incremental improvement in prognostic power beyond conventional clinical risk models as evidence by an increase in C statistic from 0.702 (0.681-0.724) to 0.769 (0.754-0.787). CONCLUSIONS: The CHD physiologic stage can potentially be used for risk stratification, as well as to monitor disease progression and response to therapy.
AB - BACKGROUND: The prognostic role of the congenital heart disease (CHD) anatomic/physiologic classification has not been systematically studied. The purpose of this study was to determine whether CHD physiologic stage provided improvement in prognostic power (to predict all-cause mortality) beyond conventional clinical risk models. METHODS: Retrospective study of adults with CHD at the Mayo Clinic (2003-2019). The CHD physiologic stage was assessed at baseline and 36 (24-48) months, and patients were classified into stages A to D at these time points. Clinical stability (remaining in the same stage), clinical improvement (moving to less advanced stage), and clinical deterioration (moving to more advanced stage) were determined at 36 months. We defined conventional clinical risk indices as age/sex, functional class, comorbidities, cardiac procedures, hepatorenal dysfunction, and ventricular/valvular dysfunction. RESULTS: Of 5321 patients, 1649 (31%), 1968 (37%), 1224 (23%), and 480 (9%) were in stages A, B, C, and D at baseline. Of 5321 patients, 4588 (86%) also had assessments at 36 months, and of these patients, 3347 (73%), 386 (8%), and 855 (19%) had clinical stability, deterioration, and improvement, respectively. Patients with clinical improvement were more likely to have undergone cardiac procedures between both assessments. Both baseline CHD physiologic stage (hazard ratio, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.09-1.17]; P<0.001, per unit increase in stage) and change in CHD physiologic stage (hazard ratio, 1.46 [95% CI, 1.32-1.61]; P=0.007, per unit increase in stage) were associated with mortality after adjustments for conventional risk indices and provided incremental improvement in prognostic power beyond conventional clinical risk models as evidence by an increase in C statistic from 0.702 (0.681-0.724) to 0.769 (0.754-0.787). CONCLUSIONS: The CHD physiologic stage can potentially be used for risk stratification, as well as to monitor disease progression and response to therapy.
KW - adult
KW - heart defects, congenital
KW - humans
KW - mortality
KW - prognosis
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U2 - 10.1161/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.122.010404
DO - 10.1161/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.122.010404
M3 - Article
C2 - 37476989
AN - SCOPUS:85171901087
SN - 1941-3289
VL - 16
SP - E010404
JO - Circulation: Heart Failure
JF - Circulation: Heart Failure
IS - 9
ER -