Preoperative predictors of nonhome discharge after fenestrated-branched endovascular repair of complex abdominal and thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysms

Background: Nonhome discharge (NHD) has significant implications for patient counseling and discharge planning and is frequently required following fenestrated-branched endovascular aortic repair (FB-EVAR) of complex abdominal aortic aneurysms (CAAA) and thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysms (TAAA). We aimed to identify preoperative predictors of NHD after elective FB-EVAR for CAAA and TAAA and develop a risk calculator able to predict NHD. Methods: A retrospective review of prospectively collected data on all patients undergoing FB-EVAR between January 2007 and December 2021 at a single institution was performed. Exclusion criteria were admission from a nonhome setting, emergency and repeat FB-EVAR, and discharge to an unknown destination. The cohort was randomly split into separate development (70% of patients) and validation (30%) cohorts to develop a predictive calculator for NHD. Independent variables associated with NHD were assessed in a series of logistic regression analyses from 100 bootstrapped samples of the development set, and a model was developed using the most predictive variables. Resulting parameter estimates were applied to data in the validation set to assess model discrimination and calibration. Results: From the initial cohort of 712 FB-EVAR patients, 644 were included in the study (74% male; mean age, 75.4 ± 7.6 years), including 452 with CAAA (70%) and 192 with TAAA (30%). Early mortality occurred in eight patients (1.2%; 5 in CAAA and 3 in TAAA) and the median hospital stay was 5 days (4 for CAAA and 7 for TAAA). Ninety-seven patients (15%) had a NHD. On multivariable analysis, older age (per year, odds ratio [OR], 1.08; P < .001), female gender (OR, 3.03; P < .001), smoking (OR, 2.86; P = .01), congestive heart failure (OR, 3.05; P = .004), peripheral artery disease (OR, 1.81; P = .07), and extent I (OR, 3.17), II (OR, 2.84), and III (OR, 2.52; all P = .08) TAAAs were associated with an increased likelihood of NHD in the development set. Based on these factors, the risk calculator was developed which accurately predicts NHD in the validation set with an area under the curve of 0.7. Conclusions: Older, female smokers with congestive heart failure and peripheral artery disease and more extensive aneurysms are at highest risk of NHD after FB-EVAR. Using only preoperative factors, our risk calculator can predict accurately who will have a NHD, allowing enhanced preoperative patient counselling and accelerated hospital discharge.