TY - JOUR
T1 - Prediction of Severe Lymphopenia During Chemoradiation Therapy for Esophageal Cancer
T2 - Development and Validation of a Pretreatment Nomogram
AU - van Rossum, Peter S.N.
AU - Deng, Wei
AU - Routman, David M.
AU - Liu, Amy Y.
AU - Xu, Cai
AU - Shiraishi, Yutaka
AU - Peters, Max
AU - Merrell, Kenneth W.
AU - Hallemeier, Christopher L.
AU - Mohan, Radhe
AU - Lin, Steven H.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 American Society for Radiation Oncology
PY - 2020/1/1
Y1 - 2020/1/1
N2 - Introduction: In patients with esophageal cancer, occurrence of severe radiation-induced lymphopenia during chemoradiation therapy has been associated with worse progression-free and overall survival. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a pretreatment clinical nomogram for the prediction of grade 4 lymphopenia. Methods and Materials: A development set of consecutive patients who underwent chemoradiation therapy for esophageal cancer and an independent validation set of patients from another institution were identified. Grade 4 lymphopenia was defined as an absolute lymphocyte count nadir during chemoradiation therapy of <0.2 × 103/μL. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to create a prediction model for grade 4 lymphopenia in the development set, which was internally validated using bootstrapping and externally validated by applying the model to the validation set. The model was presented as a nomogram yielding 4 risk groups. Results: Among 860 included patients, 322 (37%) experienced grade 4 lymphopenia. Higher age, larger planning target volume in interaction with lower body mass index, photon- rather than proton-based therapy, and lower baseline absolute lymphocyte count were predictive in the final model (corrected c-statistic, 0.76). External validation in 144 patients, among whom 58 (40%) had grade 4 lymphopenia, yielded a c-statistic of 0.71. Four nomogram-based risk groups yielded predicted risk rates of 10%, 24%, 43%, and 70%, respectively. Conclusions: A pretreatment clinical nomogram was developed and validated for the prediction of grade 4 radiation-induced lymphopenia during chemoradiation therapy for esophageal cancer. The nomogram can risk stratify individual patients suitable for lymphopenia-mitigating strategies or potential future therapeutic approaches to ultimately improve survival.
AB - Introduction: In patients with esophageal cancer, occurrence of severe radiation-induced lymphopenia during chemoradiation therapy has been associated with worse progression-free and overall survival. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a pretreatment clinical nomogram for the prediction of grade 4 lymphopenia. Methods and Materials: A development set of consecutive patients who underwent chemoradiation therapy for esophageal cancer and an independent validation set of patients from another institution were identified. Grade 4 lymphopenia was defined as an absolute lymphocyte count nadir during chemoradiation therapy of <0.2 × 103/μL. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to create a prediction model for grade 4 lymphopenia in the development set, which was internally validated using bootstrapping and externally validated by applying the model to the validation set. The model was presented as a nomogram yielding 4 risk groups. Results: Among 860 included patients, 322 (37%) experienced grade 4 lymphopenia. Higher age, larger planning target volume in interaction with lower body mass index, photon- rather than proton-based therapy, and lower baseline absolute lymphocyte count were predictive in the final model (corrected c-statistic, 0.76). External validation in 144 patients, among whom 58 (40%) had grade 4 lymphopenia, yielded a c-statistic of 0.71. Four nomogram-based risk groups yielded predicted risk rates of 10%, 24%, 43%, and 70%, respectively. Conclusions: A pretreatment clinical nomogram was developed and validated for the prediction of grade 4 radiation-induced lymphopenia during chemoradiation therapy for esophageal cancer. The nomogram can risk stratify individual patients suitable for lymphopenia-mitigating strategies or potential future therapeutic approaches to ultimately improve survival.
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U2 - 10.1016/j.prro.2019.07.010
DO - 10.1016/j.prro.2019.07.010
M3 - Article
C2 - 31369887
AN - SCOPUS:85071445691
SN - 1879-8500
VL - 10
SP - e16-e26
JO - Practical Radiation Oncology
JF - Practical Radiation Oncology
IS - 1
ER -