TY - JOUR
T1 - Performance of the ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Cardiovascular Risk Equations in Clinical Practice
AU - Medina-Inojosa, Jose R.
AU - Somers, Virend K.
AU - Garcia, Mariana
AU - Thomas, Randal J.
AU - Allison, Thomas
AU - Chaudry, Rajeev
AU - Wood-Wentz, Christina M.
AU - Bailey, Kent R.
AU - Mulvagh, Sharon L.
AU - Lopez-Jimenez, Francisco
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 American College of Cardiology Foundation
PY - 2023/10/10
Y1 - 2023/10/10
N2 - Background: The performance of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled cohort equation (PCE) for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in real-world clinical practice has not been evaluated extensively. Objectives: The goal of this study was to test the performance of PCE to predict ASCVD risk in the community, and determine if including individuals with values outside the PCE range (ie, age, blood pressure, cholesterol) or statin therapy initiation over follow-up would significantly affect PCE predictive capabilities. Methods: The PCE was validated in a community-based cohort of consecutive patients who sought primary care in Olmsted County, Minnesota, between 1997 and 2000, followed-up through 2016. Inclusion criteria were similar to those of PCE derivation. Patient information was ascertained by using the record linkage system of the Rochester Epidemiology Project. ASCVD events (nonfatal and fatal myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke) were validated in duplicate. Calculated and observed ASCVD risk and c-statistics were compared across predefined groups. Results: This study included 30,042 adults, with a mean age of 48.5 ± 12.2 years; 46% were male. Median follow-up was 16.5 years, truncated at 10 years for this analysis. Mean ASCVD risk was 5.6% ± 8.73%. There were 1,555 ASCVD events (5.2%). The PCE revealed good performance overall (c-statistic 0.78) and in sex and race subgroups; it was highest among non-White female subjects (c-statistic 0.81) and lowest in White male subjects (c-statistic 0.77). Out-of-range values and initiation of statin medication did not affect model performance. Conclusions: The PCE performed well in a community cohort representing real-world clinical practice. Values outside PCE ranges and initiation of statin medication did not affect performance. These results have implications for the applicability of current strategies for the prevention of ASCVD.
AB - Background: The performance of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled cohort equation (PCE) for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in real-world clinical practice has not been evaluated extensively. Objectives: The goal of this study was to test the performance of PCE to predict ASCVD risk in the community, and determine if including individuals with values outside the PCE range (ie, age, blood pressure, cholesterol) or statin therapy initiation over follow-up would significantly affect PCE predictive capabilities. Methods: The PCE was validated in a community-based cohort of consecutive patients who sought primary care in Olmsted County, Minnesota, between 1997 and 2000, followed-up through 2016. Inclusion criteria were similar to those of PCE derivation. Patient information was ascertained by using the record linkage system of the Rochester Epidemiology Project. ASCVD events (nonfatal and fatal myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke) were validated in duplicate. Calculated and observed ASCVD risk and c-statistics were compared across predefined groups. Results: This study included 30,042 adults, with a mean age of 48.5 ± 12.2 years; 46% were male. Median follow-up was 16.5 years, truncated at 10 years for this analysis. Mean ASCVD risk was 5.6% ± 8.73%. There were 1,555 ASCVD events (5.2%). The PCE revealed good performance overall (c-statistic 0.78) and in sex and race subgroups; it was highest among non-White female subjects (c-statistic 0.81) and lowest in White male subjects (c-statistic 0.77). Out-of-range values and initiation of statin medication did not affect model performance. Conclusions: The PCE performed well in a community cohort representing real-world clinical practice. Values outside PCE ranges and initiation of statin medication did not affect performance. These results have implications for the applicability of current strategies for the prevention of ASCVD.
KW - atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease
KW - cardiovascular outcomes
KW - cardiovascular risk assessment
KW - pooled cohort equations
KW - preventive cardiology
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U2 - 10.1016/j.jacc.2023.07.018
DO - 10.1016/j.jacc.2023.07.018
M3 - Article
C2 - 37793746
AN - SCOPUS:85171431900
SN - 0735-1097
VL - 82
SP - 1499
EP - 1508
JO - Journal of the American College of Cardiology
JF - Journal of the American College of Cardiology
IS - 15
ER -