Low PSA radiographic disease progression on C11-choline PET

Background: For men with prostate cancer, radiographic progression may occur without a concordant rise in prostate-specific antigen (PSA). Our study aimed to assess the prevalence of radiographic progression using C-11 choline positron emission tomography (PET) imaging in patients achieving ultra-low PSA values and to evaluate clinical outcomes in this patient population. Methods: In a single institution study, we reviewed the prospectively maintained Mayo Clinic C-11 Choline PET metastatic prostate cancer registry to identify patients experiencing radiographic disease progression (rDP) on C-11 choline PET scan while the PSA value was less than 0.5 ng/mL. Disease progression was confirmed by tissue biopsy or response to subsequent therapy. Clinicopathologic variables were abstracted by trained research personnel. Overall survival was estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method. Intergroup differences were assessed using the log-rank test. A univariate and multivariate Cox regression model was performed to investigate variables associated with poor survival after rDP. Results: A total of 1323 patients within the registry experienced rDP between 2011 and 2021, including 220 (16.6%) men with rDP occurring at low PSA level. A median (interquartile range [IQR]) of 54.7 (19.7–106.9) months elapsed between the time of prostate cancer diagnosis and low PSA rDP, during which 173 patients (78%) developed castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). Sites of low PSA rDP included local recurrence (n = 17, 8%), lymph node (n = 90, 41%), bone (n = 94, 43%) and visceral metastases (n = 19, 9%). Biopsy at the time of rDP demonstrated small-cell or neuroendocrine features in 21% of patients with available tissue. Over a median (IQR) follow-up of 49.4 (21.3–95.1) months from the time of low PSA rDP, 46% (n = 102) of patients died. Factors associated with poorer survival outcomes include advanced age at rDP, CRPC status, bone and visceral metastasis (p value <0.05). Visceral metastases were associated with decreased overall survival (p = 0.009 by log-rank) as compared with other sites of rDP. Conclusions: Men with prostate cancer commonly experience metastatic progression at very low or even undetectable PSA levels. Periodic imaging, even at low absolute PSA values, may result in more timely identification of disease progression.