TY - JOUR
T1 - Individualized prediction of critical illness in older adults
T2 - Validation of an elders risk assessment model
AU - Herasevich, Svetlana
AU - Minteer, Sarah A.
AU - Boswell, Christopher L.
AU - Hanson, Andrew C.
AU - Dong, Yue
AU - Gajic, Ognjen
AU - Barwise, Amelia K.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 The American Geriatrics Society.
PY - 2024
Y1 - 2024
N2 - Background: The electronic health record (EHR) presents new opportunities for the timely identification of patients at high risk of critical illness and the implementation of preventive strategies. This study aims to externally validate an EHR-based Elders Risk Assessment (ERA) score to identify older patients at high risk of future critical illness during a primary care visit. Methods: This historical cohort study included patients aged ≥65 years who had primary care visits at Mayo Clinic Rochester, MN, between July 2019 and December 2021. The ERA score at the time of the primary care visit was used to predict critical illness, defined as death or ICU admission within 1 year of the visit. Results: A total of 12,885 patients were included in the analysis. The median age at the time of the primary care visit was 75 years, with 44.6% being male. 93.7% of participants were White, and 64.2% were married. The median (25th, 75th percentile) ERA score was 4 (0, 9). 11.3% of study participants were admitted to the ICU or died within 1 year of the visit. The ERA score predicted critical illness within 1 year of a primary care visit with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.84 (95% CI 0.83–0.85), which indicates good discrimination. An ERA score of 9 was identified as optimal for implementing and testing potential preventive strategies, with the odds ratio of having the primary outcome in patients with ERA score ≥9 being 11.33 (95%CI 9.98–12.87). Conclusions: This simple EHR-based risk assessment model can predict critical illness within 1 year of primary care visits in older patients. The findings of this study can serve as a basis for testing and implementation of preventive strategies to promote the well-being of older adults at risk of critical illness and its consequences.
AB - Background: The electronic health record (EHR) presents new opportunities for the timely identification of patients at high risk of critical illness and the implementation of preventive strategies. This study aims to externally validate an EHR-based Elders Risk Assessment (ERA) score to identify older patients at high risk of future critical illness during a primary care visit. Methods: This historical cohort study included patients aged ≥65 years who had primary care visits at Mayo Clinic Rochester, MN, between July 2019 and December 2021. The ERA score at the time of the primary care visit was used to predict critical illness, defined as death or ICU admission within 1 year of the visit. Results: A total of 12,885 patients were included in the analysis. The median age at the time of the primary care visit was 75 years, with 44.6% being male. 93.7% of participants were White, and 64.2% were married. The median (25th, 75th percentile) ERA score was 4 (0, 9). 11.3% of study participants were admitted to the ICU or died within 1 year of the visit. The ERA score predicted critical illness within 1 year of a primary care visit with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.84 (95% CI 0.83–0.85), which indicates good discrimination. An ERA score of 9 was identified as optimal for implementing and testing potential preventive strategies, with the odds ratio of having the primary outcome in patients with ERA score ≥9 being 11.33 (95%CI 9.98–12.87). Conclusions: This simple EHR-based risk assessment model can predict critical illness within 1 year of primary care visits in older patients. The findings of this study can serve as a basis for testing and implementation of preventive strategies to promote the well-being of older adults at risk of critical illness and its consequences.
KW - community-based prevention
KW - critical illness
KW - elders risk assessment
KW - mortality
KW - risk prediction
KW - score
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85187131794&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85187131794&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1111/jgs.18861
DO - 10.1111/jgs.18861
M3 - Article
C2 - 38450712
AN - SCOPUS:85187131794
SN - 0002-8614
JO - Journal of the American Geriatrics Society
JF - Journal of the American Geriatrics Society
ER -