High-sensitivity troponin I and amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide predict heart failure and mortality in the general population

INTRODUCTION: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays have potent prognostic value in stable cardiovascular disease cohorts. Our objective was to assess the prognostic utility of a novel cardiac troponin I (cTnI) high-sensitivity assay, independently and in combination with amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), for the future development of heart failure and mortality in the general community. METHODS: A well-characterized community-based cohort of 2042 participants underwent clinical assessment and echocardiographic evaluation. Baseline measurements of cTnI with a high-sensitivity assay and NT-proBNP were obtained in 1843 individuals. Participants were followed for new-onset heart failure and mortality with median (25th, 75th percentile) follow-up of 10.7 (7.9, 11.6) and 12.1 (10.4, 13.0) years, respectively. RESULTS: When measured with a high-sensitivity assay, cTnI greater than the sex-specific 80th percentile was independently predictive of heart failure [hazard ratio 2.56 (95% confidence interval 1.88-3.50), P < 0.001] and mortality [1.91(1.49-2.46), P < 0.001] beyond conventional risk factors in this community-based cohort, with significant increases in the net reclassification improvement for heart failure. The prognostic utility of cTnI measured with a high-sensitivity assay goes beyond NT-proBNP, yet our data suggest that these 2 assays are complementary and most beneficial when evaluated together in identifying at-risk individuals in the community. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings lay the foundation for prospective studies aimed at identification of individuals at high risk by use of a multimarker approach, followed by aggressive prevention strategies to prevent subsequent heart failure.