GFR estimated with creatinine rather than cystatin C is more reflective of the true risk of adverse outcomes with low GFR in kidney transplant recipients

Background: Serum cystatin C-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFRcys) generally associates with clinical outcomes better than serum creatinine-based eGFR (eGFRcr) despite similar precision in estimating measured GFR (mGFR). We sought to determine whether the risk of adverse outcomes with eGFRcr or eGFRcys was via GFR alone or also via non-GFR determinants among kidney transplant recipients. Methods: Consecutive adult kidney transplant recipients underwent a standardized GFR assessment during a routine follow-up clinic visit between 2011 and 2013. Patients were followed for graft failure or the composite outcome of cardiovascular (CV) events or mortality through 2020. The risk of these events by baseline mGFR, eGFRcr and eGFRcys was assessed unadjusted, adjusted for mGFR and adjusted for CV risk factors. Results: There were 1135 recipients with a mean baseline mGFR of 55.6, eGFRcr of 54.8 and eGFRcys of 46.8 ml/min/1.73 m2 and a median follow-up of 6 years. Each 10 ml/min/1.73 m2 decrease in mGFR, eGFRcr or eGFRcys associated with graft failure [hazard ratio (HR) 1.79, 1.68 and 2.07, respectively; P <. 001 for all) and CV events or mortality outcome (HR 1.28, 1.19 and 1.43, respectively; P <. 001 for all). After adjusting for mGFR, eGFRcys associated with graft failure (HR 1.57, P <. 001) and CV events or mortality (HR 1.49, P <. 001), but eGFRcr did not associate with either. After further adjusting for CV risk factors, risk of these outcomes with lower eGFRcys was attenuated. Conclusion: eGFRcr better represents the true relationship between GFR and outcomes after kidney transplantation because it has less non-GFR residual association. Cystatin C is better interpreted as a nonspecific prognostic biomarker than is eGFR in the kidney transplant setting.