TY - JOUR
T1 - From pandemic to endemic
T2 - Divergence of COVID-19 positive-tests and hospitalization numbers from SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels in wastewater of Rochester, Minnesota
AU - Majumdar, Ramanath
AU - Taye, Biruhalem
AU - Bjornberg, Corey
AU - Giljork, Matthew
AU - Lynch, Danielle
AU - Farah, Fadumasahra
AU - Abdullah, Intisar
AU - Osiecki, Kristin
AU - Yousaf, Iris
AU - Luckstein, Aaron
AU - Turri, Wendy
AU - Sampathkumar, Priya
AU - Moyer, Ann M.
AU - Kipp, Benjamin R.
AU - Cattaneo, Roberto
AU - Sussman, Caroline R.
AU - Navaratnarajah, Chanakha K.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 The Authors
PY - 2024/3/30
Y1 - 2024/3/30
N2 - Traditionally, public health surveillance relied on individual-level data but recently wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) for the detection of infectious diseases including COVID-19 became a valuable tool in the public health arsenal. Here, we use WBE to follow the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Rochester, Minnesota (population 121,395 at the 2020 census), from February 2021 to December 2022. We monitored the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infections on public health by comparing three sets of data: quantitative measurements of viral RNA in wastewater as an unbiased reporter of virus level in the community, positive results of viral RNA or antigen tests from nasal swabs reflecting community reporting, and hospitalization data. From February 2021 to August 2022 viral RNA levels in wastewater were closely correlated with the oscillating course of COVID-19 case and hospitalization numbers. However, from September 2022 cases remained low and hospitalization numbers dropped, whereas viral RNA levels in wastewater continued to oscillate. The low reported cases may reflect virulence reduction combined with abated inclination to report, and the divergence of virus levels in wastewater from reported cases may reflect COVID-19 shifting from pandemic to endemic. WBE, which also detects asymptomatic infections, can provide an early warning of impending cases, and offers crucial insights during pandemic waves and in the transition to the endemic phase.
AB - Traditionally, public health surveillance relied on individual-level data but recently wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) for the detection of infectious diseases including COVID-19 became a valuable tool in the public health arsenal. Here, we use WBE to follow the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Rochester, Minnesota (population 121,395 at the 2020 census), from February 2021 to December 2022. We monitored the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infections on public health by comparing three sets of data: quantitative measurements of viral RNA in wastewater as an unbiased reporter of virus level in the community, positive results of viral RNA or antigen tests from nasal swabs reflecting community reporting, and hospitalization data. From February 2021 to August 2022 viral RNA levels in wastewater were closely correlated with the oscillating course of COVID-19 case and hospitalization numbers. However, from September 2022 cases remained low and hospitalization numbers dropped, whereas viral RNA levels in wastewater continued to oscillate. The low reported cases may reflect virulence reduction combined with abated inclination to report, and the divergence of virus levels in wastewater from reported cases may reflect COVID-19 shifting from pandemic to endemic. WBE, which also detects asymptomatic infections, can provide an early warning of impending cases, and offers crucial insights during pandemic waves and in the transition to the endemic phase.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85187684020&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85187684020&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e27974
DO - 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e27974
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85187684020
SN - 2405-8440
VL - 10
JO - Heliyon
JF - Heliyon
IS - 6
M1 - e27974
ER -