Evaluation of 2 breast cancer risk models in a benign breast disease cohort

Ryan D. Frank, Stacey J. Winham, Robert A. Vierkant, Marlene H. Frost, Derek C. Radisky, Karthik Ghosh, Kathleen R. Brandt, Mark E. Sherman, Daniel W. Visscher, Lynn C. Hartmann, Amy C. Degnim, Celine M. Vachon

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Scopus citations


Background: More than 1.5 million women per year have a benign breast biopsy resulting in concern about their future breast cancer (BC) risk. This study examined the performance of 2 BC risk models that integrate clinical and histologic findings in this population. Methods: The BC risk at 5 and 10 years was estimated with the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) and Benign Breast Disease to Breast Cancer (BBD-BC) models for women diagnosed with benign breast disease (BBD) at the Mayo Clinic from 1997 to 2001. Women with BBD were eligible for the BBD-BC model, but the BCSC model also required a screening mammogram. Calibration and discrimination were assessed. Results: Fifty-six cases of BC were diagnosed among the 2142 women with BBD (median age, 50 years) within 5 years (118 were diagnosed within 10 years). The BBD-BC model had slightly better calibration at 5 years (0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.71-1.21) versus 10 years (0.81; 95% CI, 0.70-1.00) but similar discrimination in the 2 time periods: 0.68 (95% CI, 0.60-0.75) and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.60-0.71), respectively. In contrast, among the 1089 women with screening mammograms (98 cases of BC within 10 years), the BCSC model had better calibration (0.94; 95% CI, 0.85-1.43) and discrimination (0.63; 95% CI, 0.56-0.71) at 10 years versus 5 years (calibration, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.94-2.25; discrimination, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.46-0.71) where discrimination was not different from chance. Conclusions: The BCSC and BBD-BC models were validated in the Mayo BBD cohort, although their performance differed by 5-year risk versus 10-year risk. Further enhancement of these models is needed to provide accurate BC risk estimates for women with BBD.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)3319-3328
Number of pages10
Issue number16
StatePublished - Aug 2018


  • absolute risk
  • benign breast disease
  • biopsy
  • breast cancer
  • risk models

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oncology
  • Cancer Research


Dive into the research topics of 'Evaluation of 2 breast cancer risk models in a benign breast disease cohort'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this