TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimating risk for developing epilepsy
T2 - A population-based study in Rochester, Minnesota
AU - Hesdorffer, D. C.
AU - Logroscino, G.
AU - Benn, E. K.T.
AU - Katri, N.
AU - Cascino, G.
AU - Hauser, W. A.
N1 - Funding Information:
Study funding: Supported in part by grants from NINDS (5-P50-NS-16308) to the University of Minnesota and NIH (MO1RR00645) to Columbia University.
PY - 2011/1/4
Y1 - 2011/1/4
N2 - Objectives: Previous studies that have assessed the risk of developing epilepsy have failed to account for the competing risk of death, significant in the elderly where epilepsy incidence is highest. We report the lifetime risk for epilepsy, accounting for the competing risk of mortality. Methods: Lifetime risk and cumulative incidence of epilepsy were examined among Rochester, MN, residents between 1960 and 1979. Age-, gender-, and calendar year-specific deaths were obtained for Rochester, MN. Lifetime risk was calculated as the conditional probability of developing epilepsy by a specific age for a person reaching that age who had not yet developed epilepsy. Lifetime risk and cumulative incidence were compared for age and time period. Results: We identified 412 individuals with incident epilepsy diagnosed between January 1, 1960, and December 31, 1979. Lifetime risk was 1.6% to age 50 and 3.0% to age 80; cumulative incidence was 1.7% to age 50 and 3.4% to age 80. Similar differences were seen across epilepsy etiologies. Lifetime risk through 87 years of age increased over time from 3.5% in 1960-1969 to 4.2% in 1970-1979. Conclusions: One in 26 people will develop epilepsy during their lifetime. Lifetime risk provides an estimate of an individual's risk for epilepsy over his or her remaining lifetime, translates into the number of people who are expected to develop epilepsy, and assists health care planners as they estimate service needs for epilepsy.
AB - Objectives: Previous studies that have assessed the risk of developing epilepsy have failed to account for the competing risk of death, significant in the elderly where epilepsy incidence is highest. We report the lifetime risk for epilepsy, accounting for the competing risk of mortality. Methods: Lifetime risk and cumulative incidence of epilepsy were examined among Rochester, MN, residents between 1960 and 1979. Age-, gender-, and calendar year-specific deaths were obtained for Rochester, MN. Lifetime risk was calculated as the conditional probability of developing epilepsy by a specific age for a person reaching that age who had not yet developed epilepsy. Lifetime risk and cumulative incidence were compared for age and time period. Results: We identified 412 individuals with incident epilepsy diagnosed between January 1, 1960, and December 31, 1979. Lifetime risk was 1.6% to age 50 and 3.0% to age 80; cumulative incidence was 1.7% to age 50 and 3.4% to age 80. Similar differences were seen across epilepsy etiologies. Lifetime risk through 87 years of age increased over time from 3.5% in 1960-1969 to 4.2% in 1970-1979. Conclusions: One in 26 people will develop epilepsy during their lifetime. Lifetime risk provides an estimate of an individual's risk for epilepsy over his or her remaining lifetime, translates into the number of people who are expected to develop epilepsy, and assists health care planners as they estimate service needs for epilepsy.
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U2 - 10.1212/WNL.0b013e318204a36a
DO - 10.1212/WNL.0b013e318204a36a
M3 - Article
C2 - 21205691
AN - SCOPUS:78751607023
SN - 0028-3878
VL - 76
SP - 23
EP - 27
JO - Neurology
JF - Neurology
IS - 1
ER -