Development and external validation of a prognostic nomogram for metastatic uveal melanoma

Sara Valpione, Justin C. Moser, Raffaele Parrozzani, Marco Bazzi, Aaron S. Mansfield, Simone Mocellin, Jacopo Pigozzo, Edoardo Midena, Svetomir N. Markovic, Camillo Aliberti, Luca G. Campana, Vanna Chiarion-Sileni

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

21 Scopus citations


Background: Approximately 50% of patients with uveal melanoma (UM) will develop metastatic disease, usually involving the liver. The outcome of metastatic UM (mUM) is generally poor and no standard therapy has been established. Additionally, clinicians lack a validated prognostic tool to evaluate these patients. The aim of this work was to develop a reliable prognostic nomogram for clinicians. Patients and Methods: Two cohorts of mUM patients, from Veneto Oncology Institute (IOV) (N=152) and Mayo Clinic (MC) (N=102), were analyzed to develop and externally validate, a prognostic nomogram. Results: The median survival of mUM was 17.2 months in the IOV cohort and 19.7 in the MC cohort. Percentage of liver involvement (HR 1.6), elevated levels of serum LDH (HR 1.6), and a WHO performance status=1 (HR 1.5) or 2-3 (HR 4.6) were associated with worse prognosis. Longer disease-free interval from diagnosis of UM to that of mUM conferred a survival advantage (HR 0.9). The nomogram had a concordance probability of 0.75 (SE .006) in the development dataset (IOV), and 0.80 (SE .009) in the external validation (MC). Nomogram predictions were well calibrated. Conclusions: The nomogram, which includes percentage of liver involvement, LDH levels, WHO performance status and disease free-interval accurately predicts the prognosis of mUM and could be useful for decision-making and risk stratification for clinical trials.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere0120181
JournalPloS one
Issue number3
StatePublished - Mar 17 2015

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • General


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