TY - JOUR
T1 - DERIVATION OF A MORTALITY PREDICTION MODEL IN CRITICAL CARE PATIENTS WITH CIRRHOSIS AND SEPSIS
AU - Serafim, Laura Piccolo
AU - Simonetto, Douglas A.
AU - Choi, Dae Hee
AU - Weister, Timothy J.
AU - Hanson, Andrew C.
AU - Kamath, Patrick Sequeira
AU - Gajic, Ognjen
AU - de Moraes, Alice Gallo
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2024 by the Shock Society.
PY - 2024/3/1
Y1 - 2024/3/1
N2 - —Objective: The aim of the study is to develop a predictive model for in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with cirrhosis and sepsis, using clinical and laboratory data. Design: This is a retrospective cohort study. Setting: Medical and mixed intensive care units (ICUs) of a tertiary medical center. Patients: Cirrhotic adults were admitted with sepsis to the ICUs from January of 2007 to May of 2017. Interventions: None. Measurements and Main Results: Of 2,595 ICU admissions of patients with cirrhosis, 277 with first ICU admission for sepsis were included in the analysis, and 37% died in the hospital. Patients who stayed in the ICU for at least 6 h (n = 275) were considered for the multivariate model. Ten-fold cross-validation was used to estimate best parameter values and model performance, and the final model was chosen as the model maximizing area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve. Variables in order of impact were Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III score, initial serum lactate, conjugated bilirubin, serum creatinine, model for end-stage liver disease score, age, body mass index, and serum hemoglobin. The final best model from cross-validation presented an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.75, using a cut-point of 50% estimated probability, sensitivity and specificity were 0.46 and 0.90, respectively, with positive predictive value of 0.72 and negative predictive value of 0.74. These results were similar to the APACHE III only model (AUC = 0.74, sensitivity = 0.43, specificity = 0.89, positive predictive value = 0.69, negative predictive value = 0.73). Conclusion: The combination of initial serum lactate level, conjugated bilirubin, initial serum creatinine, model for end-stage liver disease score, age, body mass index, and serum hemoglobin did not yield meaningful improvement in the AUC and did not provide advantage over the APACHE III score for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with cirrhosis and sepsis.
AB - —Objective: The aim of the study is to develop a predictive model for in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with cirrhosis and sepsis, using clinical and laboratory data. Design: This is a retrospective cohort study. Setting: Medical and mixed intensive care units (ICUs) of a tertiary medical center. Patients: Cirrhotic adults were admitted with sepsis to the ICUs from January of 2007 to May of 2017. Interventions: None. Measurements and Main Results: Of 2,595 ICU admissions of patients with cirrhosis, 277 with first ICU admission for sepsis were included in the analysis, and 37% died in the hospital. Patients who stayed in the ICU for at least 6 h (n = 275) were considered for the multivariate model. Ten-fold cross-validation was used to estimate best parameter values and model performance, and the final model was chosen as the model maximizing area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve. Variables in order of impact were Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III score, initial serum lactate, conjugated bilirubin, serum creatinine, model for end-stage liver disease score, age, body mass index, and serum hemoglobin. The final best model from cross-validation presented an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.75, using a cut-point of 50% estimated probability, sensitivity and specificity were 0.46 and 0.90, respectively, with positive predictive value of 0.72 and negative predictive value of 0.74. These results were similar to the APACHE III only model (AUC = 0.74, sensitivity = 0.43, specificity = 0.89, positive predictive value = 0.69, negative predictive value = 0.73). Conclusion: The combination of initial serum lactate level, conjugated bilirubin, initial serum creatinine, model for end-stage liver disease score, age, body mass index, and serum hemoglobin did not yield meaningful improvement in the AUC and did not provide advantage over the APACHE III score for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with cirrhosis and sepsis.
KW - critical care
KW - KEYWORDS—Cirrhosis
KW - mortality
KW - prediction
KW - sepsis
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85189436843&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85189436843&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1097/SHK.0000000000002323
DO - 10.1097/SHK.0000000000002323
M3 - Article
C2 - 38517233
AN - SCOPUS:85189436843
SN - 1073-2322
VL - 61
SP - 382
EP - 386
JO - Shock
JF - Shock
IS - 3
ER -