Association of Preoperative Growth Differentiation Factor-15 Concentrations and Postoperative Cardiovascular Events after Major Noncardiac Surgery

Background: The association between growth differentiation factor-15 concentrations and cardiovascular disease has been well described. The study hypothesis was that growth differentiation factor-15 may help cardiac risk stratification in noncardiac surgical patients, in addition to clinical evaluation. Methods: The objective of the study was to determine whether preoperative serum growth differentiation factor-15 is associated with the composite primary outcome of myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery and vascular death at 30 days and can improve cardiac risk prediction in noncardiac surgery. This is a prospective cohort study of patients 45 yr or older having major noncardiac surgery. The association between preoperative growth differentiation factor-15 and the primary outcome was determined after adjusting for the Revised Cardiac Risk Index. Preoperative N-terminal-pro hormone brain natriuretic peptide was also added to compare predictive performance with growth differentiation factor-15. Results: Between October 27, 2008, and October 30, 2013, a total of 5,238 patients were included who had preoperative growth differentiation factor-15 measured (median, 1,325; interquartile range, 880 to 2,132 pg/ml). The risk of myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery and vascular death was 99 of 1,705 (5.8%) for growth differentiation factor-15 less than 1,000 pg/ml, 161 of 1,332 (12.1%) for growth differentiation factor-15 1,000 to less than 1,500 pg/ml, 302 of 1476 (20.5%) for growth differentiation factor-15 1,500 to less than 3,000 pg/ml, and 247 of 725 (34.1%) for growth differentiation factor-15 concentrations 3,000 pg/ml or greater. Compared to patients who had growth differentiation factor-15 concentrations less than 1,000 pg/ml, the corresponding adjusted hazard ratio for each growth differentiation factor-15 category was 1.93 (95% CI, 1.50 to 2.48), 3.04 (95% CI, 2.41 to 3.84), and 4.8 (95% CI, 3.76 to 6.14), respectively. The addition of growth differentiation factor-15 improved cardiac risk classification by 30.1% (301 per 1,000 patients) compared to Revised Cardiac Risk Index alone. It also provided additional risk classification beyond the combination of preoperative N-terminal-pro hormone brain natriuretic peptide and Revised Cardiac Risk Index (16.1%; 161 per 1,000 patients). Conclusions: Growth differentiation factor-15 is strongly associated with 30-day risk of major cardiovascular events and significantly improved cardiac risk prediction in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery.