TY - JOUR
T1 - Stage II–III colon cancer
T2 - A comparison of survival calculators
AU - Lemini, Riccardo
AU - Attwood, Kristopher
AU - Pecenka, Stacey
AU - Grego, Juliet
AU - Spaulding, Aaron C.
AU - Nurkin, Steven
AU - Colibaseanu, Dorin T.
AU - Gabriel, Emmanuel
N1 - Funding Information:
Funding: This work was supported by Roswell Park Cancer Institute and National Cancer Institute (NCI) grant P30CA016056, and also by the Mayo Clinic Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery. We acknowledge and thank the American College of Surgeons Committee on Cancer for providing access to the Participant User File from the National Cancer Data Base.
Publisher Copyright:
© Journal of Gastrointestinal Oncology. All rights reserved.
PY - 2018/12/1
Y1 - 2018/12/1
N2 - Background: Individualized postoperative survival calculators for patients with cancer can be an aid for predicting prognosis and clinical decision making, such as the use of adjuvant chemotherapy. The aim of this study was to compare existing survival calculators for colon cancer and determine their performance using an independent cohort of patients. Methods: A retrospective analysis of a multi-site institutional experience was performed on patients diagnosed with stage II–III colon cancer between January 2012 and March 2013. Patient survival rates were estimated using Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center (RPCCC), Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC), and MD Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) calculators. These calculators vary in the number and breadth of variables that are included. The agreement between selected models was obtained through a scatter plot matrix and related intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC). Calculators’ performances were compared using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and corresponding area under the curve (AUC) values. Results: After the application of inclusion and exclusion criteria, a total of 97 patients were included in the analysis. Survival data were available for all patients. Median follow-up was 57.6 months, and the overall 5-year survival rate was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.64–0.82). Overall, the different calculators tended to predict survival similarly (ICC =0.017). However, there was variation among calculator performance with the RPCCC calculator showing the highest performance (AUC =0.913), followed by the MSKCC calculator (AUC =0.803), and the MDACC calculator (AUC =0.644). Conclusions: Prognostic models incorporating a more comprehensive amount of patient and tumor specific variables may provide a more accurate estimate of individual patient survival rates. These tools can be an actual aid in the clinical practice, allowing physicians to personalize treatment and follow-up for patients with colon cancer.
AB - Background: Individualized postoperative survival calculators for patients with cancer can be an aid for predicting prognosis and clinical decision making, such as the use of adjuvant chemotherapy. The aim of this study was to compare existing survival calculators for colon cancer and determine their performance using an independent cohort of patients. Methods: A retrospective analysis of a multi-site institutional experience was performed on patients diagnosed with stage II–III colon cancer between January 2012 and March 2013. Patient survival rates were estimated using Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center (RPCCC), Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC), and MD Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) calculators. These calculators vary in the number and breadth of variables that are included. The agreement between selected models was obtained through a scatter plot matrix and related intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC). Calculators’ performances were compared using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and corresponding area under the curve (AUC) values. Results: After the application of inclusion and exclusion criteria, a total of 97 patients were included in the analysis. Survival data were available for all patients. Median follow-up was 57.6 months, and the overall 5-year survival rate was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.64–0.82). Overall, the different calculators tended to predict survival similarly (ICC =0.017). However, there was variation among calculator performance with the RPCCC calculator showing the highest performance (AUC =0.913), followed by the MSKCC calculator (AUC =0.803), and the MDACC calculator (AUC =0.644). Conclusions: Prognostic models incorporating a more comprehensive amount of patient and tumor specific variables may provide a more accurate estimate of individual patient survival rates. These tools can be an actual aid in the clinical practice, allowing physicians to personalize treatment and follow-up for patients with colon cancer.
KW - Calculators
KW - Colon cancer
KW - Overall survival
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U2 - 10.21037/jgo.2018.08.03
DO - 10.21037/jgo.2018.08.03
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85058186931
SN - 2078-6891
VL - 9
SP - 1091
EP - 1098
JO - Journal of Gastrointestinal Oncology
JF - Journal of Gastrointestinal Oncology
IS - 6
ER -