Early PSA decline after starting second-generation hormone therapy in the post-docetaxel setting predicts cancer-specific survival in metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer

Background: The objective of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of early PSA decline following initiation of second-generation hormone therapy (2nd HT), namely abiraterone acetate or enzalutamide, in patients with taxane-refractory metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) and evaluate utility of this metric in informing intensified surveillance/imaging protocols. Methods: We retrospectively identified 75 mCRPC patients treated with 2nd HT following docetaxel failure (defined as PSA rise and radiographic progression). Patients were categorized patients into two cohorts based on the first PSA within 3 months after initiation of therapy: PSA reduction ≥50% (Group A) and PSA reduction <50% (Group B). The primary endpoint was cancer-specific mortality (CSM). The secondary endpoint was radiographic disease progression (rDP) on 2nd HT. In univariate and multivariate analyses, we investigated factors associated with rPD and CSM. Results: We included 75 patients (52 in Group A, 23 in Group B) in the analytic cohort. Baseline clinico-demographic characteristics, including median age, primary Gleason score risk group, median pre-treatment PSA, disease burden, site of metastases, and pre-treatment ECOG score were not statistically different between the two groups. Median follow up time was 30 months and the median time to radiographic disease progression was 28.1 and 12.5 months (p = 0.002) in cohorts A and B, respectively. On univariate and multivariate analyses, both PSA reduction ≥50% and volume of metastatic disease were significantly associated with a decreased risk of radiographic disease progression (HR 0.41, 95% CI 0.21–0.80, p = 0.0113) as well as a decreased risk of cancer-specific mortality (HR 0.29, 95% CI 0.09–0.87, p = 0.0325). Conclusion: PSA reduction ≥50% within 3 months of starting 2nd HT was associated with significantly improved radiographic disease progression-free survival and 3-year cancer-specific mortality. This suggests using PSA 50%-decline metric in surveillance patients with on 2nd HT and identifies patients who require further evaluation with imaging.