Cancer "Avatars": Patient-Derived Xenograft Growth Correlation with Postoperative Recurrence and Survival in Pancreaticobiliary Cancer

BACKGROUND: Pancreaticobiliary (PB) cancers are a diverse group of cancers with poor prognoses and high rates of recurrence after resection. Patient-derived xenografts (PDX), created from surgical specimens, provide a reliable preclinical research platform and high-fidelity cancer model from which to study these malignancies with consistent recapitulation of their original patient tumors in vivo. However, the relationship between PDX engraftment success (growth or no growth) and patient oncologic outcomes has not been well studied. We sought to evaluate the correlation between successful PDX engraftment and survival in several PB exocrine carcinomas, including the pancreatic and biliary tract. STUDY DESIGN: In accordance with IRB and Institutional Animal Care and Use Committee protocols and with appropriate consent and approval, excess tumor tissue obtained from surgical patients was implanted into immunocompromised mice. Mice were monitored for tumor growth to determine engraftment success. PDX tumors were verified to recapitulate their tumors of origin by a hepatobiliary pathologist. Xenograft growth was correlated with clinical recurrence and overall survival data. RESULTS: A total of 384 PB xenografts were implanted. The successful engraftment rate was 41% (158/384). We found that successful PDX engraftment was highly associated with both recurrence-free survival (p < 0.001) and overall survival (p < 0.001) outcomes. Successful PDX tumor generation occurs significantly in advance of clinical recurrences in their corresponding patients (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Successful PB cancer PDX models predict recurrence and survival across tumor types and may provide critical lead time to alter patients' surveillance or treatment plans before cancer recurrence.